A Study on the Relationship between "Natural Growth Rate" and "Mainstream of Economic Long Wave" in China

A Study on the Relationship between "Natural Growth Rate" and "Mainstream of Economic Long Wave" in China


Author:Liu Jinquan, Zhang Ying Journal:Finance and Trade Research   Date:2009(2)

Keywords Economic growth; economic cycle; natural growth rate; long growth wave;

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up, China's economic growth has formed a 30-year long wave trajectory. China's economic growth close to the "natural growth rate" is a necessary condition for the formation of economic long-term, "natural growth rate" and the existence of economic correlation between the long wave. The initial stage of China's economic long wave is the "total supply single factor drive" stage, and when the aggregate demand becomes a short-term factor of economic equilibrium, the economic long wave begins to enter the main area, and the stability of economic growth is gradually strengthened. The term structure of the long wave of China has a whole symmetry, so it can be expected that the tail of the long wave of China still has a stable property close to the "natural growth rate".

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