This project mainly studies the following problems in the context of trade imbalance caused by the current global trade system and monetary system arrangements,(1) what kind of loss and potential risks China faces;(2) how the US economic policy will guide the formation of risks and the recognition of losses;(3) how can China isolate the spillover effects of US economic policies to reduce losses in the face of possible situations.The project first uses econometric methods to test the spillover effects of US economic policies on China. And then establishes a dynamic stochastic general model to analyze the channels of spillover effects conduction. The Bayesian VAR model is established by using the results of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of US economic policy on the economy. Secondly, this project establishes a social accounting matrix to represent the Chinese economy.