Parameter Estimation and Application Research of Hidden Markov Processes (2011QG026)

Parameter Estimation and Application Research of Hidden Markov Processes (2011QG026)


Leader Tian Ping

Members Li Wei, Zhao Yang, Zhang Peng

Origin Social Science Projects in Colleges

Fund 30,000 Yuan

Duration 2011.05-2014.06

Introduction

In this paper an asset price model described by hidden Markov process dS(t)=μ(t)S(t)dt+σS(t)dW(t ) is considered, where W is a standard Brownian motion and σ is an unknown constant. The mean return{μ(t),0≤t≤T} is a stochastic process not necessarily adapted to the filtration generated by the process {S(t),0≤t≤T} and it contains  some unknown parameters to be estimated from a continuous time observation of S(t). Statistical estimators of the parameters σ and the parameters in μ based on Kalman filtering are  proposed and some numerical simulations are  performed  for the proposed estimators.

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