Study on the Calculation of Potential Economic Growth Rate and the Path of Structural Transformation in China(12&ZD197)

Study on the Calculation of Potential Economic Growth Rate and the Path of Structural Transformation in China(12&ZD197)


Leader Zhang Yishan

Members Shen LIsheng,Zhao Xindong,Sun Wei,Shi Zhuxian,Zhang Shiwei

Origin National Social Science Fund for Major Project

Fund 800,000

Duration 2012.10

Introduction

This Project mainly resolves the following problems: (1) the research group calculate the potential growth rate of China's economy from different perspectives, the results show that the potential growth rate in general can be maintained at 7% or more in the next 8-15 years, but it will decrease first and increase after, and the minimum growth rate may be approaching 5% before 2019, which is China's economic reform Period;(2) give the economic structure conversion path playing potential production capacity; (3) analyze the inner and direct cause, main contradiction of economic new normal; (4) clarify the relationship between the factor structure and the technological progress; (5) reveals the change law of the human capital stock in our country. The estimation result shows that the human capital stock is accumulated at the growth rate of 10.06%, thus laying a foundation for the higher potential economic growth; (6) The research group combines the research results with practice, the prin


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