Research on the turning Points Identification, Phase Transitions and Early Warning of China’s Business Cycles

Research on the turning Points Identification, Phase Transitions and Early Warning of China’s Business Cycles


Leader Wang Jinming

Members 

Origin National Natural Science Fund

Fund 48

Duration 2016.1-2019.12

Introduction

The project, based on the actual conditions of China, will study China’s business cycles combining the classical measuring methods with the modern econometric models. We intend to establish the multi-dimensional structure system of monitoring and early warning and compute composite index to study the features of business cycles.Through the profound investigation and research on the structural change and fluctuation features of business growth cycle, this project will emphasize the evolution of China’s economy in the transition period. Using the experience of developed countries for reference, we attempt to study the methods of monitoring and early warning the growth cycles in China and try to keep up with the developed countries in econometric and empirical research fields. Also, the project aims to improve the timeliness and accuracy of the measurement and prediction of China’s growth cycles and give reference information for the government to prejudge the economic situation.


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