It is worth discussing that the reason for the decline of the private investment in 2016 is the result of the deterioration of the economic fundamentals or the spontaneous bubble extrusion behavior of the private investment. The results of an IMS-ADF model for bubble test based IHMM by autonomous programming implementation showed that, private investment, along with the existence of rational bubble which can be expected to be broken, has long deviated from the national economy, and its decline is a direct result of bubble extrusion behavior after the bubble formation and accumulation, but the rapid rate of bubble extrusion is easy to cause systemic risk. Results analysis showed that Measures such as "four trillion" on a large scale of money delivery to stimulate investment growth is no longer desirable, but should adhere to the optimization of institutional mechanisms, market base and policy regulation to improve the status of private investment gradually.

Download