The scholars' views on China's future economic trends are very different. Based on microeconomic equilibrium theory and new normal characteristics, the estimation equation of economic potential growth rate is deduced with the industrial structure model in this paper. Then we use the variable parameter C-D production function to establish the panel state space model, and analyze the relationship between the Luna index and the industrial proportion. On this basis, a single step test is done to verify the reliability of the theoretical model. Afterwards, we measure the potential growth rate of China's economy over the next decade using the model, the results show that: China will experience a 5-year medium-term growth period, the minimum growth rate may be close to 5%, then will usher in another period of high economic growth, the growth rate may be close to 8%.

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