Empirical Studies on the Impact of China’S Fiscal Expenditure Uncertainty on Household Consumption
Empirical Studies on the Impact of China’S Fiscal Expenditure Uncertainty on Household Consumption
Author：Chen Shoudong, Yang Dongliang Journal：The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics Date：2009(9)
Keywords Fiscal Expenditure；Household Consumption；Uncertainty；Time varying Parameters and Switch Regime Union Model
Abstract
In this paper，we build the reaction function about fisca1 expenditure growth rate on other macroeconomic variables，and measure two kinds of uncertainties of fiscal expenditure growth rate respectively which are led by endogenous and exogenous shocks，by time-varying model and switch regime mode1．Statistics test shows only time-varying model and switch regime union model can fit all uncertainties of fiscal expenditure growth rate．W e study the impact of these two uncertainties on trend component of household consumption growth rate．The empirical results show that the uncertainty of fiscal expenditure growth rate led by endogenous and exogenous shocks respectively has negative and positive effect on household consumption of China．
Attachment
