In this paper, based on the two regimes and three regimes switching model with mean process to identify and analyze the volatility and the stage transfer of business cycle in China. Meanwhile, we can judge and forecast the phases of China's business cycle and the growth trend. We have found that after 2008，China's economy has been in "slow growth stage";in the next 3 years, China's economy will remain in "slow growth phase"，but as time goes on, the probability of our economy in the "low growth stage" will decrease, and in the "high growth stage" or "suitable growth phase" will" increase. In the next 3 years, the economic growth rate of China have an upward trend, overall, but the economic growth rate will be the lowest in the third quarter of 2009.

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