The Stages of China's Economic Cycle and the Asymmetry of Economic Fluctuation: A Study Based on the Markov Model Transfer Model
The Stages of China's Economic Cycle and the Asymmetry of Economic Fluctuation: A Study Based on the Markov Model Transfer Model
Author：Liu Jinquan, Li Qinghua Journal：Social Science Front Date：2009(6)
Keywords Economic cycle; economic growth; MS model; asymmetry;
Abstract
This paper studies the basic characteristics of China's economic cycle from January 1990 to December 2007, and finds out that the transfer model of the three-zone Markov system is suitable for depicting the fluctuation of China's economic cycle. China's economic growth shows a rapid growth, rapid growth, high-growth stage of the law, and found that China's economic cycle in the probability of regional transfer asymmetry; the probability of transfer estimates that China's economic growth in the "moderate growth Stage "the strongest stability, the longest duration, the economic cycle to the stage of the probability of transfer is also the largest.
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