The Impact of International Oil Price on China 's Macro - economy - An Analysis Framework Based on MS - VECM

The Impact of International Oil Price on China 's Macro - economy - An Analysis Framework Based on MS - VECM


Author:Pang Xiaobo,Liu Gang,He Bin,Li Xiaodong Journal:Social Sciences Front  Date:2008(7)

Keywords Markov regional transfer model; International oil price; Macroeconomic

Abstract

China as the world's oil market in the future the main potential demand, the international oil market and oil prices will have an important impact. The impact of this impact on the price impact will in turn affect China's macroeconomic and long-term stability and sustainable development of China's national economy have a significant impact, therefore, a correct understanding of the impact of the way and impact on the development of China's long-term Oil development strategy is of great significance. And when the macroeconomic in the expansion and systolic period, the international oil prices on the macroeconomic can show a different impact. Based on the vector error correction model of Markov regional transfer based on international oil price and domestic macroeconomic variables, this paper explores the impact of international oil prices on China's macro economy when macroeconomic is in different states. It is found that international oil prices The expansion rate has a significant positive impact on the real GDP growth rate there is a significant negative impact.

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