Building SW-Type Leading Indices: An Empirical Study

Building SW-Type Leading Indices: An Empirical Study


Author:Wang Jinming,Cheng Jianhua,Yang Xiaoguang Journal:Chinese Journal of Management Science  Date:2007(8)

Keywords  SW Index;coincident composite Index;SW-type leading index

Abstract

Using China's monthly economic data from January 1997 to May 2006, the paper discusses the possibility of building SW-type leading indices. Empirical results show that: SW Index based on coinci dent indicators can reflect the economic movement quite well;both SW Index and Coincident Composite Index have their own advantages; but SW-Type Leading Index based on leading indicators is unstable and ill-performed, while SW-Type Leading Index based on coincident indicators forecasting has a good performance.

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