China's inflation rate and fluctuation average process The double long memory measurement and statistical tests

China's inflation rate and fluctuation average process The double long memory measurement and statistical tests


Author:Liu Jinquan,Zheng Tingguo,Sui Jianli Journal:Management World  Date:2007(7)

Keywords Long memory property inflation uncertainty ARFI MA model FI GARCH model Granger Causal shut

Abstract

This paper employed ARFI MA - FI GARCH model , inflation rate from January 1983 to October 1983 inflation rate during the dynamic process of inspection, we found that the rate of inflation in China has been one of the first moment and second moment significant long memory, suggesting that the rate of inflation level and inflation uncertainty sex show long-term memory; In the inspection of inflation and inflation uncertainty between Granger influence relations, the results show that the rate of inflation levels of inflation uncertainty there is significant relationship between the Granger, so in monetary policy,we should fully consider the rate of inflation and inflation uncertainty long-term memory of sexual behavior and the one-way influence relations between them.

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