Describing the Regmi es ofGrowthM eans and Volatilities in BusinessCycle and Testing for ItsRelationship

Describing the Regmi es ofGrowthM eans and Volatilities in BusinessCycle and Testing for ItsRelationship


Author:Liu Jinquan, Li Qinghua, Liu Zhigang Journal:Jilin University Journal, Social Sciences Edition  Date:2007(5)

Keywords  outputgrowth; business cycle; growth volatility; Markov regimes switchingmodel

Abstract

By using the vector error correct model with Markov regime switching of two state variables, we describe and test the correlations of output volatility with growth. We find the evidence that there is a significant relationship between volatility and growth, and the patterns of correlation vary asymmetrically with the regimes. We also find that the regime with middle growth and volatility lasts longer and keeps stable. This means that China's economy has gone into the stable and rapid growth stage.

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