The Dynamic and Inflation Rate of Chinese Phillips Curve: A Study Based on the Model of Regional Space Transfer Model

The Dynamic and Inflation Rate of Chinese Phillips Curve: A Study Based on the Model of Regional Space Transfer Model


Author:Liu Jinquan,Jin Chunyu,Zheng Tingguo Journal:The Journal of World Economy  Date:2006(5)

Keywords Phillips curve; inflation expectations; output gap; state space model;

Abstract

Since the 1990s, there has been a very similar trend between China's economic growth and price volatility. Based on the Phillips curve and Okun 's law, this paper uses the state space model with regional transfer to analyze the relationship between economic growth rate and inflation rate. We first estimate the expected inflation rate and the potential economic growth rate, and then describe the dynamic characteristics of the Chinese Phillips curve based on the relationship between inflation expectation error and output gap. This paper finds that China's "output-price" relationship has a long-term Phillips curve of the nature of the economic growth rate reflects the high volatility zone and low volatility regional system, inflation expectations also show two different expectations of the expected form.


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