Using the Binary Choice Model to Establish China 's Financial Early Warning Model
Using the Binary Choice Model to Establish China 's Financial Early Warning Model
Author：Chen Shoudong, Zhao Dakun, Chi Xianliang Journal：Stucy＆ Exploration Date：2006(1)
Keywords Financial crisis; binary selection model; crisis warning system
Abstract
The model of financial crisis early warning is established by using Logit model, and the ARIMA model is introduced to obtain the short-term forecast value of each index and realize the prediction of the sample. The early warning model is used to monitor and forecast the operation of our financial system. The result is that in 2005 China's financial system is still in a relatively stable stage.
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