Since the 1990 s IS set up based on state space method contains tax influence the consumption of quarterly variable parameter model and variable parameter model is-lm quarter, were estimated and calculated the dynamic of the marginal propensity to consume, simple policy multiplier and contains the extrusion effect of fiscal policy multiplier. Through the comparative analysis, this paper concludes that our country since the 1990 s the government spending has certain crowding out, extrusion parts of income should be increased 3.1% 17.6%, as a whole is not significant, expand the scale of Treasury bonds issued nearly three years did not increase the crowding out.

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