Since 1998, the government to expand domestic demand of the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, China's macro economy has bottomed out, a steady rebound. But to enter the second half of 2000, economic growth rate falling, the fall is temporary, how long the duration will be, the next step for China's economic development trend, the most concern is the current government and economics. Jilin university macro economic forecasting research combining the main Cycle (Major Cycle) theory, using many kinds of prediction model and the "macroscopic economic monitoring and early warning system", in 2001 China's macroeconomic situation is analyzed and forecast.

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