Exchange Rate Risk and the Change of China’s Position in Global Value Chains

Exchange Rate Risk and the Change of China’s Position in Global Value Chains


Author:Deng Chuang,Li Haozhe,Wu Jian Journal:Shanghai Journal of Economics Date:2025(5)

Abstract: Understanding the impact mechanism of exchange rate risk on the position of global value chains is ofgreat significance for China to build a higher level of open economic system. On the basis of examining the path ofchange in the GVC status of 33 industries in China, this paper uses the MF-BVAR model to explore the impact ofexchange rate risk on China's GVC status and its industry heterogeneity, and further examines the differences in theimpact of exchange rate risk on the GVC status of different industries in terms of the embeddedness of GVCs and thedegree of embeddedness. The study finds that:(1) Since 2007, the embedded position of Chinese GVC in variousindustries has a tendency to shift upstream, with the competitive advantages of the resource industry and the serviceindustry showing a weakening trend, while the competitive advantages of the manufacturing industry continue torise(2) Exchange rate risk has had a negative impact on the position of GVC in different industries in China, and thenegative impact has further intensified since 2016, with the most significant impact on the position of the serviceindustry GVC;(3) The upgrading of the embedded position of industry GVC and the deepening of the degree ofembeddedness can significantly mitigate the negative impact of exchange rate risk. The above conclusions provideempirical evidence at the industry level and useful policy insights for effectively resolving exchange rate risks andenhancing China's GVC position.

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