The Multidimensional Economic Effects of the Epidemic Impact and the Policy Regulation Mechanism: A Re-examination Based on the Perspective of "Two-Pillar" Policy Coordination

The Multidimensional Economic Effects of the Epidemic Impact and the Policy Regulation Mechanism: A Re-examination Based on the Perspective of "Two-Pillar" Policy Coordination


Author:Li Tianyu Zhang Yishan Journal: Date:

At present, as the new crown pneumonia epidemic continues to spread around the world, its impact has gradually exceeded the infectious disease itself, and gradually penetrated into the economic and financial fields, bringing heavy blows to the global economic development. In view of this, this paper focuses on the multi-dimensional economic effects of the epidemic, and introduces the impact of household demand, enterprise supply and financial friction to comprehensively depict the structural impact of the epidemic on the real economy. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the impact of the epidemic is a typical composite shock transmitted from the real economy to the financial system, so firmly grasping the recovery process of the real economy is the core task to smooth this economic fluctuation; Second, in terms of the essential attributes of the epidemic shock, it has a typical "strong supply, weak demand" shock effect, which means that in the period of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the orderly recovery of the supply side is the key to policy regulation; Third, from the perspective of the economic policy portfolio paradigm during the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the "two-pillar" model of macroprudential policy and monetary policy can produce the greatest policy benefits, which indicates that it is necessary to balance macroeconomic stable growth and financial system risk prevention when calming the fluctuations of the epidemic. Fourth, the ripple effect of the epidemic has begun to gradually become prominent, which means that China will have a high probability of leading the world recovery, and will also provide important strategic opportunities and strength guarantees for China to show its role as a great power.

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