Abstract：Systemic risk of financial market is related to financial stability, economic stability and even national security. On the basis of revising the efficient market hypothesis, which is based on the assumption of rational man and serves as the cornerstone of standard finance, this paper puts forward the theory of efficient market cycle, studies the mechanism of the accumulation, release, prevention and resolution of systemic financial risks from a new perspective, and uses STAR model to test the money market, bond market, stock market and real estate After the real estate market, it is found that there are effective cycles in these four markets: money market and stock market have long effective cycles, which may accumulate systemic financial risks; The effective cycle of the bond market and the real estate market is short and the market efficiency is very high. It is reasonable to guess that the real estate market is compatible with the rapid development of China's economy, which is not consistent with the appearance of the real estate bubble. The long effective cycle of the market increases the possibility of the outbreak of systemic financial risks. The possibility of the outbreak of systemic financial risks in the stock market and the money market is greater than that in the real estate market and the bond market.

Key words: market effective cycle; Mean regression; Systemic financial risk; Market regression cycle; Price discovery function; Asset bubble