Asymmetric Features in the Accumulation and Release of Systemic Financial Risk in Stock Market

Asymmetric Features in the Accumulation and Release of Systemic Financial Risk in Stock Market


Author:Song Yuchen, Huang Shan Journal:Inner Mongolia Social Sciences Date:2020,41(04)

Abstract:The asymmetric feature in the accumulation and release of systemic financial risks is crucial factor in the formation of financial crises and make the financial crisis from possible to reality. Taking the Chinese stock market as a research object, the research is conducted from the perspective of the accumulation and release of systemic financial risks, and the asymmetric characteristics of risk evolution are analyzed. We prove the asymmetric feature of China's stock market based on the data of the Shanghai stock market from Jan1992 to Dec 2019, by synthesizing the volatility pressure indicator of risks, including yield, volatility and turnover, and testing through nonlinear smooth transition model. Result shows that China's stock market has negative thresholds, high transition speeds, and larger coefficients regarding to negative shock, indicating that systemic risks in stock market are more sensitive to negative shocks, and that risks accumulates and releases asymmetrically. However, the difference between the negative impact coefficient and the positive impact coefficient is small, indicating a finite degree of asymmetry and that the probability of a financial crisis is low.

KeywordSystemic Financial Risks; Asymmetry; Slow Accumulation and Rapid Release; Nonlinear Smooth Transition; Accumulation and Release


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