Abstract：It is an undeniable fact that there are crisis inducing factors in China's economic system.To avoid such risks,external shocks should be paid attention to in addition to the argument of internal supervise and improvement of market mechanism.Therefore,to control macroeconomic trend,it is important to establish early warning indicators on the basis of balance of payment items in order to take preventive measures. This article constructs economic growth pressure indicator reflecting economic fluctuation.Through discrete choice and response probability graph,this article makes early warning on domestic macroeconomic expansion and contraction,and draws conclusions that foreign exchange reserve rate,foreign direct investment growth rate and total trade growth rate effectively forebode macroeconomic process.

Keyword：balance of payments;macroeconomic prosperity;prosperity early warning;