Fiscal Policy Choices under the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic:Analysis Based on Nonlinear NK-DSGE Model

Fiscal Policy Choices under the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic:Analysis Based on Nonlinear NK-DSGE Model


Author:Jin Chunyu,Xu Yueyue Journal:Inquiry Into Economic Issues Date:2023(01)

Abstract: In the face of the repeated impact of the COVID19China has entered a new stage of epidemic prevention and control Under this backgroundthe rational choice of fiscal policy is crucial to stabilize economic development By introducing service consumption utility shocks in the nonlinear NKDSGE model with heterogeneous households and firmsthis paper quantitatively simulates the impact of the COVID19 on the macro economy and compares the implementation effects and multiplier effects of various fiscal policies under the impact of the epidemic The results show thaton the one handthe COVID19 pandemic affects the entry and exit of firms through the service sectorwhich in turn has a negative impact on the macro economy; On the other handthe COVID19 has caused an increase in unemployment and the default rate of household loansand further aggravates financial risks and economic recessionProactive fiscal policies play a countercyclical role in coping with the impact of the epidemic and effectively alleviated the economic recession By comparing the regulatory effects of increased government purchasestax cuts and government transfer paymentsit is found that in terms of stabilizing household income and promoting consumption growththe tax reduction policy is most effective to deal with the impact of COVID19while in terms of promoting output and employment growththe fiscal policy of increasing government purchase expenditure is more effective.The research conclusions provide theoretical reference for financial intervention of epidemic prevention and control

Keywords: COVID19 epidemic; Fiscal policy; Multiplier effect; Nonlinear NKDSGE model


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