Abstract: The downward pressure on the Chinese economy is increasing, and the macro debt rate is rising. Economic growth cannot escape its dependence on debt. Therefore, a time-varying parameter factor extended vector autoregressive model with random volatility is constructed to empirically study the dynamic impact of debt from residents, enterprises, and government departments on economic growth from typical and continuous periods, aiming to explore the issue of macro debt risk in China under the goal of stable growth, provide empirical evidence to prevent debt risks. Research has found that household debt has a promoting effect on economic growth in the short term and a inhibiting effect in the long term, while corporate and government debt have a inhibiting effect on economic growth in both the short and long term. The debt risk of enterprises and government departments is relatively high; During periods of economic stability, it is appropriate to adopt a policy of expanding the debt of the residential sector, moderately reducing the debt level of enterprises and government departments. During periods of severe economic fluctuations, it is advisable to cautiously increase the debt level of residents and increase efforts to reduce the debt of enterprises and government departments; In the context of the rebound of economic recovery in the post COVID-19 period, the debt of the residential sector should be moderately increased, and attention should be paid to preventing the debt risk of enterprises and government departments.

Keywords: Macro Debt; Risk Prevention; Economic Growth; SV-TVP-FAVAR model