Abstract：Exchange rate stability is the effective guarantee for high-level opening-up to promote high-level development.While conforming to market forces, the appropriate guidance of exchange rate depends not only on the dynamic adjustment of short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium, but also on the complete distribution of exchange rate rise and fall ranges. Using the quantile autoregressive distribution lag method, this paper describes the differential impact of foreign exchange actual intervention and exchange rate communication on the exchange rate level from January 2009 to December 2020. The research results show that actual intervention and exchange rate communication show time-varying and asymmetric characteristics in different exchange rate fluctuation ranges from the long-term and short-term perspectives. Whether it is long-term equilibrium or short-term fluctuations, actual interventions have a significant positive impact on the exchange rate level, while exchange rate communication has different directions in the range of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation. Therefore, effective foreign exchange market guidance must take into account both the range of exchange rate fluctuations and the short-term and long-term impacts. In particular, the short-term impact of exchange rate communication leads to long-term adverse changes.

Keyword：Exchange Rate Equilibrium; Actual Foreign Exchange Intervention; Exchange Rate Communication; Quantile Regression;