Abstract: Stabilizing the macroeconomic market is the basis of high-quality development, which contains the dual connotation of reasonable growth in quantity and steady improvement in quality. In the face of increasingly complex external markets, the central bank focuses on selecting monetary policy control methods that match the current economic characteristics, aiming to improve the stability and continuity of policies and maximize the effect of regulation. This paper extends the basic Taylor rule model to the Taylor rule model with time-varying variance. The model can not only measure the level rules of monetary policy, but also capture the tendency of monetary policy on discretion and rules. This model is used to conduct empirical research on China 's data from 1992 to 2021. The conclusion shows that in order to cope with the impact of external uncertainty, the central bank needs to appropriately add discretionary components when implementing monetary policy. However, with the demand for high-quality economic development and macroeconomic stability, the central bank 's tendency to make discretionary choices is weakening, and it is gradually developing into a rule-based operation mode in order to curb market volatility and achieve long-term strategic goals.

Keywords: Monetary policy ; taylor Rule ; camera choice ; GARCH model