From Empirical Test to Theoretical Conjecture: Time-varying Path of Deviation between Price and Value of Securities and Its Formation Mechanism

From Empirical Test to Theoretical Conjecture: Time-varying Path of Deviation between Price and Value of Securities and Its Formation Mechanism


Author:Xu Decai, Chu Zijian, Zhou Jinyu Journal:The Journal of Quantitative Economics Date:2019,10(3)

AbstractThe answer to the relationship between price and value of securities is critical to the extension of modern financial theoryand affects the selection of practical operation criteria of capital market. Based on the divergence of traditional financial theory and behavioral finance theoryour paper calculate the deviation between price and value of securities using the residual income modeldescribe the time-varying path of the deviationtest those causes of the time-varying pathand finally illustrate the formation mechanism of the time-varying path. We find thatthe time-varying path of the deviation has obvious cyclical non-linear structurewhich attributes to that the time-varying path mainly consists a periodic component and an exogenous impulse componentand the former component determines the basic structure of the paththe later component determines the specific structure of the path. Our theoretical conjecture is thatthe financial market would be a mirror of the macroeconomic systemwhich means that there would be some general characteristics and phenomena of the macroeconomic system in financial marketthen behaviors of subjects in financial market following economic cycle and the deviation result in periodic component of the pathand the macro and micro shocks to the macroeconomic system are reasons of exogenous impulse component. Our theoretical conjecture is only inferred from some empirical testwhich reflects its lacking of demonstration. Soit would be a smart idea to analysis behaviors of subjects in financial market among states of economy and deviations between price and value of securities from a micro perspective.

Keywords: Deviation between Price and Value of Securities; Time-varying Path; Formation Mechanism; Empirical Test; Theoretical Conjecture

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