Abstract: This article measures China's trade uncertainty index from an industry perspective, and on the basis of analyzing its industry correlation dynamics, further uses the TVP-VAR model to empirically investigate the impact dynamics of trade uncertainty shocks and its characteristics of industry heterogeneity from the two dimensions of trade scale growth and trade structure optimization. The results show that: ( 1 ) There are significant industry differences in China's trade uncertainty, and the inter-industry spillover effect of trade uncertainty shocks show significant time-varying characteristics. The net spillover index of trade uncertainty in technologyintensive industries is positive while those in other industries are negative; (2) From the perspective of the trade scale growth, the trade uncertainty of capital-intensive industries has the greatest negative impact on the growth of total imports and exports, while the trade uncertainty of resource-intensive industries has the greatest negative impact on its growth of import and export trade;(3) From the perspective of trade structure optimization, the trade uncertainty of technology-intensive and labor-intensive industries has the most significant negative impact on the import and export trade structures respectively. These research results provide useful empirical basis and policy enlightenment for creating a stable economic and trade environment, promoting the optimization of trade structure, and promoting China's economy to achieve higherquality development.
Keywords: Trade Uncertainty Industry Correlation Import and Export Trade Trade Structure