The Industry Superposition of Business Cycle and Its Time-Frequency Correlation with Policy Cycle in China

The Industry Superposition of Business Cycle and Its Time-Frequency Correlation with Policy Cycle in China


Author:Deng Chuang,Wang Yisen Journal:Shanghai Journal of Economics Date:2022(06)

Abstract:This paper comprehensively uses continuous wavelet transform and frequency domain connectedness to explore the fluctuation characteristics of business cycle and the superposition mechanism of different frequency fluctuation components in various industries,and employ the dynamic interaction between business cycle and policy cycle under different frequency domains.The results show that: the business cycle is superimposed by fluctuation components of different frequencies, among which the main cycle fluctuation of about 4 years is driven by the combination of industry, agriculture,construction, finance and real estate. During the global financial crisis and COVID-19 outbreak, the short cycle fluctuation of about 2 years is relatively prominent and mainly comes from wholesale and retail industry, accommodation catering industry and transportation industry.The fiscal policy cycle(monetary policy cycle) mainly produces short-term(long-term) effects on the business cycle in the high-frequency(low-frequency) fluctuation components,while the spillover effects of the business cycle on the economic policy cycle are concentrated in the low-frequency fluctuation components.These studies provide useful empirical basis and policy inspiration to implement targeted and precise regulation with the coordinated use of various macro-control policies in the new era, and further improve the cross-cycle design and regulation mechanism of macro-control from the perspective of industry superposition and time-frequency correlation.

Keywords:policies in the new era, and further improve the cross-cycle design and regulation mechanism of macro-control from the perspective of industry superposition and time-frequency correlation.

Views[ Share: Weibo WeChat Q-zone