Absract: Unbundling the severe shackles of real estate on economic development is a prerequisite for unleashing the potential and dynamics of the domestic general cycle. Based on the TVP-FAVAR model, this paper constructs the real estate cycle index, and from the two-dimensional perspective of the time domain and frequency domain, analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of China's real estate cycle and its correlation with the credit cycle. The research results show that: First of all, China's real estate market as a whole shows cyclical fluctuations dominated by 3 to 4 years, but after 2016, it has begun to show new characteristics of weakened cycles and extended downward duration. Secondly, the interactive effects of the real estate cycle and the credit cycle are mainly concentrated in low-frequency long-cycle components and have significant state-dependent characteristics. When the real estate cycle is in the expansion stage, its positive feedback effect on the credit cycle is more prominent, while in the contraction of the real estate cycle, the reverse regulation effect of the credit cycle on the real estate cycle is more obvious.

Key words: Real Estate Cycle;  Credit Cycle;  TVP-FAVAR Model;  Frequency Domain Connectivity