Abstract: After the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the world's economic development ushered in a new cycle, but its characteristics are very different from those of the past, specifically: the lack of economic growth momentum, slow economic recovery in the post-crisis period, the extension of the economic contraction period, the global economic development into a new round of austerity process. At the same time, China's economic growth rate also fell below 8% again after 2012, marking the economic growth rate into the shift period. Based on this, this paper adopts the TVP-VAR model to study the impact of world economic boom changes on China's real output growth from a dynamic perspective, and analyzes the effectiveness of current macro-control policies in ironing out economic fluctuations. The results show that the impact of world economic boom changes has only short-term effects, and it is the inevitable trend of economic development in developed countries, but the correlation with China's economic transformation is weak, while from the perspective of the effectiveness of policy regulation, the use of broad money to iron out economic fluctuations will face long-term welfare cost constraints, while active fiscal policy is a more robust macro-control instrument.

Keywords: economic cycle; TVP-VAR; economic boom; macroeconomic regulation