Time-varying Effects of the World Business Cycle on China’s Economic Cycle: An Empirical Analysis Based on TVP-VAR Model

Time-varying Effects of the World Business Cycle on China’s Economic Cycle: An Empirical Analysis Based on TVP-VAR Model


Author:LIU Jinquan, LI Borui, LIU Dayu Journal:International Economics and Trade Research Date:2018(09)

Abstract: At present the world economy is characterized with slow recovEry prolonged systolic period and lack of growth momentum and China’ economy also steps into the shift period of economic growth. Therefore, by constructing two TVP-VAR models this paperexplores the time -varying influence mechanism of the world business cycle on China’s economic cycle from two aspects of the volatility spillover of the country-specific economic cycle and the operation of the world’ s macro-economy. The research shows that the short term influence of the country-specific economic cycle on the spillover effect of China’s economy is significant but the long- term impact is weak. The world economic recovery has a minor stimulating effect on China’s economic growth and exerts an unobvious mutation influence on China’s price level However the recovery of the world price level has a significant positive effect on China’s economic development Therefore we should take a rational view of the current economic slump pay close attention to our own economic development actively promote the economic structural adjustment and restore the tradable goods prices

Key words: world economic cycle; economic cycle; TVP-VAR model


Views[ Share: Weibo WeChat Q-zone