Uncertainty Shocks, Industrial Fluctuations and Macro-Control: Evidence from the Comparison of Three Typical Epidemic Periods

Uncertainty Shocks, Industrial Fluctuations and Macro-Control: Evidence from the Comparison of Three Typical Epidemic Periods


Author:Liu Dayu ,Xu Bin, Liu Jinquan Journal:Zhejiang Social Sciences Date:2020(09)

AbstractThis paper constructs a TVP-VAR model to study the unbalanced impact of policy uncertainty under the epidemic period on China’s three industries, and then compares the experiences of macro-control under three typical epidemic periods, mainly comes to the following conclusions. First, although the COVID-19 pandemichas caused great panic in the capital market, its core influence is still within the service industry and the real economy, which means the current epidemic has broad, long-term and practical effects on the economy. Second, judging from the severity of the industry’s impact, price inflation in the primary industry and shrinking demand in the tertiary industry during the post-epidemic period are particularly worthy of attention. Finally, in terms of macro-control after the current epidemic, moderate expansion of monetary policy will not only keep a suitable inflation in the primary industry, but also effectively boost the vitality of the tertiary industry, so that can achieve the short-term coupling of macro-control objectives. In addition, rational tax regulation also helps regulate market behavior and guide the tertiary industry for benign development. Both of them are beneficial attempts of macroeconomic regulation during the epidemic situation.

Key words: COVID-19 pandemic; economic policy uncertainty; balanced industrial development; macro-control


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