Abstract: Since the economic operation entered the new normal, China’s business cycle has shown an obvious downwards trend with lower fluctuations. To clarify the causes of the new economic cycle pattern, this paper builds a large-scale DSGE system, puts various factors such as investment, trade, economic policy, and financial volatility into a unified framework, and com- prehensively analyzes the internal mechanism of the current economic cycle pattern variation. Our main conclusions are as follows: firstly, the narrowing policy space, the declining export growth rate and the increased financial volatility all contribute to the current decline of business cycle location. These changes follow the general laws of economic development, which indicates the trend shift of China’s business cycle is an objective, irreversible and long-term phenomenon. Secondly, our empirical analysis shows that the decline in export growth rate explain most of the current business cycle downturn, and financial fluctuations is the most important element in driving the future business cycle. Finally, from the perspective of the long-term trend of economic growth, the overall risks of the Chinese economy have been well released, which provides a solid foundation for the stable development of the economy at the medium and high speed level, and also provides an objective guarantee for economic recovery in the post-epidemic period.

Key Words: Business Cycle; New Normal; Business Cycle of Growth Pattern; DSGE Models.