Dynamic Fluctuation Mechanism of China's Economic Growth Rate -- An Empirical Study Based on TVP-VAR Model

Dynamic Fluctuation Mechanism of China's Economic Growth Rate -- An Empirical Study Based on TVP-VAR Model


Author:Liu Jinquan,Fu Weiyan,Liu Dayu Journal:Shanghai Economic Research Date:2014(05)

Abstract: In recent years, many studies believe that there are significant differences in the action mechanism between economic variables at different levels. With the change of the level value of economic variables, the action mechanism among variables in the economic system may also change. Using tvp-var model and its impact response function, this paper describes the fluctuation mechanism of economic growth rate from a dynamic point of view, and takes typical time points as an example to test the change and migration of the interaction mechanism between economic variables. The empirical results show that TVP-VAR model has a strong ability to capture time point information. During the sample period, there has been a significant structural change in the action mechanism between economic growth and inflation rate.

Keywords: Economic Growth; TVP-VAR Model; Impact Response Function


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