Abstract

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economic growth began to take off from stagnation, and become a market-oriented economic transition stage, and achieve a moderately smooth growth transition from the initial high-growth, high volatility during the new stage of globalization, accelerated industrialization and urbanization. However, at the beginning of “12th Five-Year” stage, China’s economic growth began slow down, because of the financial crisis and the external and internal economic uncertain. At the period of New Normal, we analyzed the volatility and persistence of China’s business cycle from the framework of“medium erm cycle". We find that there exists a 5-8 year cycle in China economy which is accompanied by lower average growth and volatility. At the same time, the economic policies are in effective in the New Normal. In our opinion “13th Five-Year” stage will still being in the “moderate growth and moderate fluctuations” stage. China economic development has the good chance to do the comprehensive economic restructuring, the adjustment of economic structural, and the complete of urbanization, industrialization. It will laid the solid development foundation and the material base for the comprehensive better-off society．

Key words

New Normal; Medium-term Cycle; Economic Growth; Volatility; Persistence

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15939/j.jujsse.2017.03.001