Abstracts: Based on a time varying coefficient vector autoregressive model with potential threshold variables (LT-TVP-VAR) , using high-dimensional computing advantages to empirically analyze the macroeconomic effects of China's tax structure in the period of economic crisis, economic recovery and economic new normal. The results show that: in the period of economic crisis, tax structure has a stronger inhibitory effect on output, consumption and finance, and a weaker promotion effect on prices; in the period of economic recovery , tax structure has a weaker promotion effect on output and prices, and a weaker inhibitory effect on consumption and finance; in the new normal period, tax structure has a weaker inhibitory effect on output, consumption and finance, and a stronger promotion effect on prices. The tax structure can only cause short-term fluctuations in prices, and it has long-term effects on output, consumption, and finance. The government should actively implement the structural tax reduction policy, strive to improve the direct tax system and the indirect tax system, and rationally optimize the tax system structure to promote the long-term stable development of China's macro-economy.

Keywords: Tax structure; Macroeconomic effects; Structural tax cuts; LT-TVP-VAR model