Capital Account Openness, Monetary Policy Validity and Exchange Rate Regime Trilemma or Dilemma?

Capital Account Openness, Monetary Policy Validity and Exchange Rate Regime Trilemma or Dilemma?


Author:Liu Jinquan, Zhang Wanting, Xu Ning Journal:World Economy Studies Date:2018(5)

Abstract: This paper employs a state space model to measure China's real capital account openness, and introduces regression models with interactive terms to evaluate the differences among the impact of capital account openness on monetary policy dependence under different exchange rate regimes. Main conclusions are as follows: firstly, exchange rate regime switching will not affect the influence of capital account openness on monetary policy independence, thus there is no fixed sequence between liberalization of capital account and interest rate; secondly, taking the recent rise in global risk aversion into consideration, the dilemma is more consistent with China's economy; and lastly, due to international instability, it is not appropriate to accelerate capital account liberalization recently, cause this could lead to monetary policy failure、capital over-expansion and systemic financial risks.


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