The External Impact of Developed Economies Monetary Policy on China’s Systemic Financial Risks

The External Impact of Developed Economies Monetary Policy on China’s Systemic Financial Risks


Author:Qiao Mu-zi,Song Yu-chen Journal:Economic Review Date:2018(03)

Abstract: This paper examines the external shock effects of the monetary policy of developed economies-the United States,the European Union,and Japan on China ‘s systemic financial risks. It uses the SV- TVP-VAR model with stochastic fluctuation to build the impulse response function,which use China’s systemic financial risk index,interest rate and exchange rate (dollars,euro and yen) as variables,analyzing its time-varying features and the response mechanism.The empirical results show that the monetary policy of the USA the European Unions and Japan has varying impact on China  s financial market stabilization.The interest rate spreads between China and the developed countries and the expectation of RMB appreciating will both lead to quantities of cross - border capital flowing to China and increasing the possibility of systemic financial risk happened.As a result,China must be precaution of the risks bringing by other countries monetary policy,strengthening the supervision of cross-border capital flows,and improving the financial regulatory system to maintain the stabilization of financial market.

Key words: Developed Countries; Monetary Policy; Systemic Financial Risk

 

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