Abstract: Agriculture credit guarantee institutions should provide policy-oriented services and prevent financial risk and the key is to balance policy and independence. Based on a dynamic game theory with incomplete information, this paper analyzes the game process and implements a digital simulation. The simulation results show that the demand for the borrower's profitability by the guarantee institution will exceed the actual level of many agricultural organizations if the external risk management mechanism is not taken into account. The introduction of agricultural insurance did not change the critical value of the guarantee institution's fiduciary probability, but the critical value of the return on assets of the agricultural organization's fiduciary strategy was reduced by 12%, which enhanced the motive of fiduciary. The introduction of guarantee platform has little impact on agricultural organizations, but it reduces the requirement of guarantee institutions for the probability of compliance by 17%, and improves the guarantee willingness of guarantee institutions. Therefore,  the improvement of the external risk management mechanism can not only help agricultural credit guarantee institutions to control credit risk, but also expand the coverage of guarantee.

Key words: Agriculture Credit Guarantee; Risk Sharing Mechanism; Agriculture Insurance; Guarantee Platform