An Empirical Study and Theoretical Conjecture on the Time Effect of Financial Distress of China’s Listed Companies

An Empirical Study and Theoretical Conjecture on the Time Effect of Financial Distress of China’s Listed Companies


Author:DING Zhiguo, GENG Yingtao, ZHAO Jing, DING Yuyang Journal:Accounting Research Date:2018(02)

Abstract: Based on analyzing sample of Chinese A-share firms, this paper uses panel data and survival analysis method to identify the general rule of financial distress after firm listing. The empirical results show that the relation between financial distress condition of listed companies and listed time is a robust inverted U-shape curve, with vertex appearing at about 10 years after listing. The financial distress of listed companies has significant and robust time effect. The theory conjectures that for firms in the initial stage of the IPO, listing requirements contribute to the lowest risk of financial distress. As time goes by, managers encountering with more investment opportunities and lower cost of capital tend to invest to projects that should not be taken, resulting a higher leverage. This will lead to a gradually increasing risk of financial distress. However,  managers will then try to avoid falling into financial distress when the risk of financial distress climbs higher, as they will always consider continuous operation and have reputation concern. Therefore, the financial distress of listed companies presents the time effect with an inverted U-shaped curve

Key words: listed company; financial distress; time effect; panel data model; survival analysis


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