Abstract:Based on the modified DMSP night-time light composite data, this paper constructs an urban polycentric index, then uses a time-varying panel model to estimate the empirical equations of smog pollution. The empirical results show that: (1) with the long-term steady improvement of China’s per capita income, the income growth and air quality have shown a clear coordinated development trend (2) the regional multi-centered development has a significant mechanism of promoting the rise and then the fall of smog pollution (3) China’s secondary industry and transportation industry no longer have significant pollution-promoting effect at present, and are upgrading to environment-friendly industries. Besides, this study makes some additional contributions: On the one hand, the correction of night-time light data can provide more accurate data processing criterion for related research. On the other, the time-varying panel estimation further explains the complex mechanism between economic variables and smog pollution as well as reveals the origin of the instability of the EKC hypothesis. These improvements may provide an important academic reference for the subsequent researches and a general empirical evidence for policy makers.

Keywords:Time-varying panel model; Smog pollution; Urban spatial structure; Modified night-time light data