Abstract:We explore China's pollution emission convergence through theoretical deduction and empirical test using a spatial Green Solow model. First, the extended theoretical analysis results show that an economy will pass the inflection point of Environmental Kuznets Curve when growth rate of pollution reduction technology exceeds that of output, which supports the existence of pollution emission convergence. Secondly, estimation results of a dynamic spatial panel data model show that China's urban pollution emission has convergence properties in which club convergence will come true first. Thirdly, China's low-pollution urban cluster has entered a benign pattern of pollution prevention; the medium-pollution club characterized by pollution transfer shows beggar-thy-neighbor effects; while the high-pollution club with a typical positive feedback mechanism of pollution still faces risks of escalating pollution. Hence, the government should pay great attention to pollution prevention of the medium- and high-pollution clubs by strengthening regional coordination and accelerating industrial upgrading, which promotes the shift of pollution prevention from club convergence to absolute convergence and provides an environmental guarantee for high-quality development.

Keywords:Pollution emission; Extended spatial green solow model; Club convergence; Dynamic spatial panel data model