Calculation of the Potential Economic Growth Rate and the Path of Structure Transformation in China

Calculation of the Potential Economic Growth Rate and the Path of Structure Transformation in China


Leader Zhang Yishan

Team Shen Lisheng, Zhao Xindong, Sun Wei, Shi Zhuxian, Zhang Shiwei

Published Date 2012,10

Keywords Potential Economic Growth Rate; Path of Structure Transformation

Abstract

This Project mainly resolves the following problems: (1) the research group calculate the potential growth rate of China's economy from different perspectives, the results show that the potential growth rate in general can be maintained at 7% or more in the next 8-15 years, but it will decrease first and increase after, and the minimum growth rate may be approaching 5% before 2019, which is China's economic reform Period;(2) give the economic structure conversion path playing potential production capacity; (3) analyze the inner and direct cause, main contradiction of economic new normal; (4) clarify the relationship between the factor structure and the technological progress; (5) reveals the change law of the human capital stock in our country. The estimation result shows that the human capital stock is accumulated at the growth rate of 10.06%, thus laying a foundation for the higher potential economic growth; (6) The research group combines the research results with practice, the prin


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