On the basis of the biochemical explanation of excess liquidity and Combining trend analysis, the time varying estimation of correlation coefficients is realized using Dirichlet-VAR model developed by Dirichlet stochastic process in the nonparametric Bayesian framework, which is for the analysis of multivariate time-varying Granger causality between economic variables, and the core conducting structure of the positive conduction and the reverse force of the variables are investigated. Then get the dynamic effects of monetary policy on the path and excess liquidity.

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