The Three Industries Fluctuations and Monetary Policies Effects in China

The Three Industries Fluctuations and Monetary Policies Effects in China


Author:Deng Chuang Journal:[Working Paper]  Date:2014(7)

Keywords Three Industries, Potential Output, Output Gap, Monetary Policy, Bounce-back Model

Abstract

This paper employed the bounce-back model to estimate the three industries’ potential output and output gap between 1978 and 2013 in China. On this basis, I examined the three industries’ fluctuation characteristics, and analyzed the effects of monetary policies on three industries fluctuations through the vector auto regression model. Analyses show that there is asynchronous phenomenon among the three industries fluctuations; the second industry fluctuation is the dominant source of macro economic fluctuations. Since 1996, the effects of China’s monetary policies on macroeconomic fluctuations have been obviously enhanced; monetary policies have good counter-cyclical control effects on the fluctuations of the second and third industries. For the asymmetry of monetary policies effects,the contractionary monetary policies are significantly superior to the expansionary monetary policies.

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