'One Belt and One Road',the Source of Power to Continue the 'Chinese miracle'

'One Belt and One Road',the Source of Power to Continue the 'Chinese miracle'


Author:Tian Ping,Zhang Yishan Journal:Working Paper Date:2017(3)

Keywords 'Chinese Miracle';Motive Force of Growth;'One Belt and One Road'

Abstract

The rapid growth of more than 30 years is a rare 'Chinese miracle' in the world. How to fully extend this miracle is an important choice for China's economic transition period. In the process of combing the research literature on the economic growth dynamics, it is found that the research on the dynamics of China's giant economy is diverse and messy, and the research conclusions are more inconsistent, which makes it necessary to classify and clarify the relationship between economic growth dynamics. Combined with the production cycle of the macro-economy, the economic growth dynamics are divided into four types: macro-environment and policy, institutional dynamics, input factor dynamics, productivity dynamics and demand dynamics. The definitions of these four types of power are defined separately, and the mutual relations are demonstrated. It is concluded that only the input factor power and productivity power are the direct driving force of economic growth. Further, as the factor driving in China is nearing the end and the total factor productivity driving mode has not yet been formed, if the conventional development model is still followed, even the new normal development speed will soon end. However, the 'One Belt, One Road' development strategy can make up for the shortcomings of China's capital and labor input factors, and can stimulate the improvement of productivity including technological progress, which is the direct driving force for economic growth and the fundamental driving force for extending the new normal growth time of China's economy in the future. Finally, comments and suggestions are made to achieve the goal of continuing the 'Chinese miracle'.

 

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