The optimal macro-prudential policy to effectively regulate the real estate market and the economy "out of fiction and reality"

The optimal macro-prudential policy to effectively regulate the real estate market and the economy "out of fiction and reality"


Author:Meng Xianchun , Zhang Yishan, Li Tianyu Journal: Date:

Focusing on the important issue of how to effectively regulate the real estate market and boost the real economy under the background of the serious imbalance between real estate and the real economy in China in recent years, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that can reveal the intrinsic characteristics of China's economy "dematerialization to virtuality", uses Bayesian method to estimate the model and matches Chinese macro data, and simulates the effectiveness of macroprudential policy and credit policy on this basis. The results show that compared with credit growth rate and real estate prices, broad credit deviation can become a signal source for macro-prudential policies to more effectively regulate the real estate market, and policies can significantly reduce welfare losses. The macroprudential policy of targeting the deviation of broad credit inhibits the growth of house prices by countercyclically regulating the credit market, weakens the crowding out effect of the real estate market on real investment, and then smooths the fluctuation of total output, while making the total social debt scale more compatible with the development of the real economy, significantly reducing the macro leverage ratio; In a more perfect financial market, credit policies have the function of structural adjustment, promote the transfer of capital to the real economy, and guide the economy to "turn from virtual to real". Under the current situation, we can consider implementing macro-prudential policies that target broad credit in real estate to stabilize real estate prices and alleviate the imbalance between real estate and the real economy; Deepen financial reform, develop direct financing, improve the financing capacity of other capital goods, adjust credit policies in favor of the real sector, under this credit structure, the level of real investment and household consumption increases with credit expansion, and the sound development of finance and the real economy.

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