Evolution Trends and Countermeasures of International Financial Risk Contagion——Evidence from Stock Market

Evolution Trends and Countermeasures of International Financial Risk Contagion——Evidence from Stock Market


Author:Song Yuchen, Lv Jingru Journal:Study & Exploration Date:2021(09)

Abstract:With the development of multilateralism and regional economic integration, the risk contagion in international financial market is characterized by short-term, rapid and complex characteristics. In order to grasp the evolution trends of international financial risks, this paper takes the main international stock markets as the object, studies the trend characteristics of international financial risk contagion, analyzes the difference of risk contagion intensity in different economic regions, and analyzes the impact contagion effect of international financial market risks on China's financial market from the perspective of dynamic impact. The empirical results show that there are obvious risk contagion effects among international stock markets, which show certain regional and time-varying characteristics, and the risk contagion effects show a trend of increasing volatility. In the current international economic environment, in order to speed up the recovery of the economy hit by COVID-19, major economies in the world have implemented ultra-loose monetary policies. The continued loose monetary environment has separated the rebound of the financial market from the recovery of the real economy, and increased risks and hidden dangers in the international financial market. During the 14th Five-year Plan period, in order to prevent the impact of international financial market risks on the domestic market, we should pay equal attention to international strategic investment and strengthening cross-border capital flow supervision, expand the scale of trade and balance of international payments, promote RMB internationalization and stabilize RMB exchange rate, promote financial opening and risk prevention as a whole, so as to maintain the stable development of China's financial market.

KeywordInternational Financial Market; Trends of Risk Contagion; Time-varying Characteristic; DCC-GARCH Model


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